SIM Bravo — Cordova scenario

You are newly elected President Smith. Cordova is a small fictitious Pacific island country and a long-standing U.S. partner dating to World War II. It is now a struggling democracy with a largely authoritarian government, widespread poverty, human-rights abuses, and a rising Cordovan Armed Resistance (CAR) insurgency.

Cordova is the world's foremost producer of the fictional rare-earth mineral iphonium, which is used in military and mobile-phone technology. The United States buys 70% of Cordova's iphonium and benefits economically and technologically from that supply. CAR has captured one of the three major mines at Derba and may soon capture another near Zos. President Sula has requested U.S. military assistance, including sophisticated weapons, vehicles, aircraft, and advisers.

The United States has so far provided only nonmilitary aid because the Cordovan Army has reportedly used indiscriminate bombing and artillery against villages, causing many civilian casualties while killing few insurgents. Human-rights advocates condemn the violence.

Poll data (margin of error ±3 points)

• 38% oppose U.S. intervention
• 37% support U.S. intervention
• 25% are unsure

Choose one policy

1. Intervention: provide military assistance and advisers to help recapture the mines, restore order, preserve iphonium shipments, and maintain U.S. technological and economic advantages.
2. Non-intervention: do not provide military assistance because of the Sula government's civilian abuses; reduce nonmilitary aid delivered to the government to signal that the abuses are unacceptable.

Part 1 — Rationale

Write at least 200 words beginning with: “As President Smith, I choose [intervention or non-intervention] because…” Explain the reasoning for your decision, what you plan to do, and why. Use specific evidence from the preserved narrative, policy choices, and poll data. Address the major human-rights, security, economic, diplomatic, and domestic-political tradeoffs. The supplied opening does not count toward the 200-word minimum.